Wednesday, September 10, 2008

We Could Smell First Place

A few quick thoughts about last night’s debacle of a game:

  • I feel really bad for Jason Bay. He looked like a little kid rounding first when he hit the go-ahead home run with two down in the 8th and the Sox down by one. Then somebody broke the news to him that there really is no Santa Claus.
  • Paps for three straight days is not a good idea. Even his outs were well hit.
  • From now on, I want Paps to just throw a 97mph heater in Navarro’s ribs. Forget the go-ahead double last night, Navarro forced an unearned, go-ahead run on Paps with his terrible throw in the All-Star game. That deserves a few broken ribs, don’t you think?
  • What the hell was Tito thinking in the 9th last night? Kotsay walks, and you’ve got THREE more catchers on the bench…why not pinch hit one of them for somebody who can actually get the bunt down? Tito’s man-love for Tek is really getting disgusting.
  • OK, so Tek can’t get the bunt down and you’ve got Kotsay on 1st with one down. Shouldn’t this be a good time to pinch-run Jacoby? If you’re worried about them pitching around Papi, WHO CARES? Let them. Here’s the run expectancy matrix for the three most possible situations:
    • Runner on first, one out: 0.526
    • Runner on first, two outs: 0.228
    • Runners on first and second, one out: 0.908
    • Runner on second, one out: 0.688
    • Runner on second, two outs: 0.335

    So if Jacoby steals and they walk Papi, there’s an almost 20% better chance of a run scoring. But if you leave Kotsay in and Papi makes an out, suddenly your chance of scoring a run drops almost 30%. Do the math Tito.

  • First place was THIS close.
posted by Matt at 1:52 pm  

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

I’d Like to Thank ME! Because I Did All the Work!

Congratulations are in order. Not to the Red Sox, although I’ll get to them in a minute. Congratulations to all the fans for helping break Cleveland’s fans’ record of 455 consecutive sellouts. It’s not exactly September 6, 1995 when Cal Ripken Jr. broke Lou Gehrig’s iron man streak, but what makes this so cool is that it’s a record for us, the fans. One that absolutely couldn’t happen without us. Theoretically, the Sox could have come back from down 0-3 in 2004 in an empty stadium, or from being down 1-3 last season without a fan to watch. (Although I kinda doubt they would have played Dirty Watah following 297 out of 456 of those games without us.) But it’s cool to know that this is OUR record, the fan’s record. And yes, even the pink hats. For once they did something helpful.

As for the Sox, they certainly gave the fans a good show for all their hard work. Kotsay, Papi, Youks and Bay put up the 3 runs in the bottom of the first, and Lester and Paps made it hold up. Lester was magnificent, pitching 7.2 scoreless innings. Paps came for the save and looked like old Paps – four outs, 3 Ks. Between him and Lester, the Devil Rays fanned 12 times. What was a 5.5 game lead by the Devil Rays 9 days ago is now a half a game.

In the beginning of the season, hell, even a month ago, these were the games that the Devil Rays found a way to win. Their pitching manned up, and their offense squeeked by. Well, now it’s the Sox’ turn to do that…hopefully into an AL East title and more.

posted by Matt at 9:43 am  

Monday, September 8, 2008

Public Service Announcement

For everybody in New England who’s worried that the Patriots season may have ended before it started, I’d like to remind you that there’s still almost two months of baseball left! We’ve got pennant races, followed by playoffs, and as of right now the Sox are only 1.5 games behind the Devil Rays and are 6.5 up in the Wild Card race (not to mention 8 games up on the MFY).

Wake’s 500th appearance wearing the Olde Towne Jerseye was less than memorable on Saturday, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a two-out collapse like that. He retired the first five of the game, and then allowed the next nine batters to reach base (seven of them scoring). The offense tried to come back and make a game of it, but, who are we kidding, Chris Smith, Mike Timlin and David Pauley are not going to hold down a AAA offense, let alone the Rangers. I just hope that these outings by Timlin are remembered if and when it’s time to put together a 25-man roster for the playoffs. Here’d be my little cheat sheet of the bullpen for Tito:

Paps > Masterson > Oki > Lopez > Delcarmen > Chris Smith > David Pauley > JD Drew > Timlin

Sunday was a different story. In Arlington, with 93 degree heat, the AL-leader in HRs allowed (30) on the mound, and the most potent offense in the majors, you might expect a replay of the August 12th game where the Sox and Rangers scored a combined 36 runs. Instead, Byrd carved through the Texas lineup (with a very dull 84mph knife) going 6.2 scoreless innings against the majors best hitting team. On the other side of the ball, the offense finally decoded Brandon McCarthy as some payback for when he dominated the Sox back in ‘05 as a rookie. And when I say “the offense” it really was an all-around effort. Cora with a 2-out RBI triple, Coco with a 2-out RBI single, and the regulars helped out as well. If the Sox can get this kind of production from the bottom of the lineup, watch out.

I’ll be honest, I was hoping for a 10-game sweep of the Rangers this season. You don’t get to do that very often. But I guess nine out of 10 aint bad.

So, let’s recap:

  • Sox 1.5 games back in the division going into critical 3-game set vs. the Devil Rays

  • Sox 6.5 games up in the Wild Card
  • Football season hasn’t started
  • MFY 8 games back of the Wild Card

Remember folks, life is good.

posted by Matt at 11:20 am  

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Returns from the DL

Everybody was worried about how Beckett would be in his return from the DL. No matter what Dr. James Andrews says, the fact that he spoke to Dr. James Andrews is enough to make fans hide under the covers in fear. But when Beckett said things like “I thought about [the elbow] before the game more than anything,” it was clearly just a big facade. In reality, Beckett was so confident that he didn’t even zip up his pants for the first few innings. Sure, there’s (hopefully) a cup under there, but trying to hit Josh Beckett when he says “here’s my stuff…and my stuff…just try and hit it” has got to be near impossible.

Mike Lowell would also like to remind people that he came back from the DL too, with a HR, 2B, single and four RBIs. Could you imagine, we could have a lineup of Bay, Kotsay and Drew in the outfield, and Lowell, Lowrie, Pedroia and Youks in the infield with TWO speedsters off the bench in the playoffs. Sean Casey was also activated from the DL, but until he plays, who knows if he’s actually healed. Although I doubt the Mayor could get any slower. Either way, welcome back boys, it’s good to have you.

posted by Matt at 3:23 pm  

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Blown Save By Committee

Starter by committee? What is this, game 7 of the ALCS at the Toilet? For a team that normally feast on bullpens, especially from the Orioles, the Sox offense made the combination of Lance Cormier and Dennis Sarfate look like Scott Kazmir. It took Cromier and Sarfate a combined 79 pitches to get through 6 innings without allowing a runner past first. Suddenly I was trying to figure out if there was a way the Devil Rays and the MFY could both lose their game.

And then the real Orioles bullpen decided to show up in the 7th. Our 5′2″ cleanup hitter put the Sox on the board with one down in the 7th, and Kotsay tied up the game with an “Adam Jones is afraid of the Green Monster” triple in the 8th. But you really knew things were going the Sox way in the 9th when Cora got a clean single (strange), Coco’s sac bunt bounced fair-foul-fair for a single (really strange) and Jacoby’s sac bunt was thrown into left for a game-ending error (ok, that one was just stupid). I do have to wonder what Dave Trembley was doing brining in a rookie with ZERO major league innings to a tie-game in the bottom of the 8th. It’s almost like he’s trying for the best draft position now.

posted by Matt at 11:09 am  

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

This is Our Cleanup Hitter?

When Radhames Liz puts his head down on the pillow after a hard day’s work and closes his eyes, I can only imagine that he keeps having this recurring nightmare where he has to face David Ortiz with the bases loaded and one out. Every time he serves up a 2-run double, and wakes up in a cold sweat; except for yesterday when there was no waking from the dream. Papi crushed Liz going 3-3, with 2 2B and 4 RBIs.

Amazingly, Ortiz wasn’t even hitting 4th. That would be some guy named Pedroia who is putting the “cleanup” back in cleanup hitter going 3-5, 1 HR, and 5 RBIs but still can’t reach the top shelf of his parents liquor cabinet. I’m not really sure what else to say, even Remy and Orsillo ran out of things to do yesterday…

posted by Matt at 10:30 am  

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Byrd vs. The Birds

Yet another ho-hum 7 inning performance from the Byrdman with a W. It’s amazing to think that this is a guy we got off the waiver and replaced a pitcher who couldn’t get out of the 3rd inning. To be perfectly honest, I was shocked that Byrd managed to go this long tonight. Around the 2nd inning I started noticing that during his windup, he would tap his glove with the ball if he was throwing anything but a curve. If he was throwing the curve, he kept the ball snugly in the glove as his knee came up. Sure, I’m no John Farrell, but that seems like the definition of tipping pitches to me.

As for the the offense, Tek decided to be the opening act for Pedroia’s laser show, tying the game at one with a frozen rope that just barely hit the Pesky Pole in the 2nd. But the opening act couldn’t upstage the headliner, as Pedroia turned out to be the difference with a 6th inning two-out bases-loaded single. Maybe managers will soon learn to just walk Pedey with the bases loaded rather than pitch to him. As Ozzie Guiellen said a few days ago, “I never thought I was going to walk a goddamn jockey.”

posted by Matt at 3:53 am  
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