I know, I know, the Phillies and Dodgers started their series yesterday, but I promise I had these picks chosen well before the first pitch of the NLCS. So…

• Phillies over Dodgers in 6 (I love D-Lowe, but he’s no “ace.”)
• Devil Rays over Sox in 5 (Basing this totally on Beckett’s lousy start in the ALDS. We’re also missing Mikey Lowell and could use all the defense we can get at the Trop. If none of that does it for you, then I have two words: Mike Timlin. Nuff said.)

Let’s hope my inability to predict the playoffs continues!

Just some entertainment to keep us held over until Friday. Next season I hope that when the Angels come to Fenway the Sox have Erick Aybar bobble-arms day.

For all the members of the tribe (and I don’t mean the Cleveland Indians), have a safe and easy fast. If the ALDS had gone to five games, I’d be sitting in temple instead of watching game five.

Picture courtesy of Kelly O’Connor

The longer these games went, the more I started worrying that we were seeing the 2003 ALDS in reverse. If you think about it, both the 03 Sox and the 08 Angels were down 0-2. They had no momentum. But then the Sox won game 3 of the 03 ALDS in 12 innings, and eerily the Angels won game 3 of the 08 ALDS in 12 innings.

Now we come to game 4. In the 03 ALDS, the A’s had a 4-3 lead going into the 8th. Things weren’t looking good for the Sox, facing one of the best closers that year, Keith Foulke. With two down and runners on the corners, Papi lined a double to the wall in right, and the Sox took a 5-4 lead. All of a sudden the momentum had shifted, and the Sox took game 5.

Fast forward to tonight, where the Sox had a 2-0 lead going into the 8th. Okijima retired the first two batters, but walked Texieria on four pitches. Masterson came in and walked Vladdy after having a 0-2 count. A wild pitch and a Torii Hunter single later, the game was tied and Mark Kotsay had to be thinking “here we go again.” (In case you forgot, Kotsay was on that ‘03 A’s squad.)

Los Los Angeles Angeles de Anaheim got a pinch-hit double to lead off the 9th, bunted Morales to third and then fucked it all up. Rather than try for a normal run such as an RBI groundout, a sac fly or, you know, a single, the Angels went fancy and tried for a suicide squeeze. Problem is, with a 2-0 count, Erick Aybar totally missed making contact and Tek chased pinch-runner Reggie Willits back to third, leapt, and tagged him out. I wish I could say that I was jumping for joy at this point, but to be perfectly honest, I was so shocked by the drastic turn of events, I could hardly move. To be fair to Mike Scioscia, it could have been worse, Dusty Baker would have called for the suicide squeeze with an 0-2 count and nobody on.

Then the Ugly Boys went to work (between them and Nancy Drew, no 9th inning is a mystery). With one down, Bay looped a double down the right field line that Willits dove for and missed by 5 feet. It probably would have been an inside the parker except that it bounced into the stands. Kotsay who is clearly not a member of the Ugly Boys (have you seen his wife?!) came up and ripped a ball right at a diving Texieria for the second out. And then Stanford boy came to the plate. Lowrie, who is still waiting for that orthodontics sponsorship, grounded a curveball into right. Fenway held its breath until Bay slid headfirst, getting spiked on the hand as he touched home. By the time Bay touched home half the team was already waiting for him, with the other half ready to jump on Lowrie. Freaking unbelievable. I hope Lowrie enjoys his new name in Southern California (and the Julio Lugo household) where he’ll now be forever known as “Jed Motherfucking Lowrie.”

Going into this series I didn’t have many expectations. Drew and Lowell were hurt, Beckett’s start was pushed back, and to be perfectly honest, the series had “World Series Hangover” written all over it. But it’s amazing what 14 innings of 0 ER from Lester will do. You read that correctly, ZERO earned runs. I could have done without the extra stress in the last game (this graph pretty much describes my blood pressure last night), but these were two great games, capped by a tremendous walk-off. As a result, it looks like the only hangover will be Paps’. As Tom Caron put it “[Papelbon] would celebrate a win in April like this if they’d put the plastic on the lockers.” And if you’re worried about Bay’s hand, well, “It’s just a tiny little nick,” Bay said, “but it hurts when I get champagne in there.”

Now on to the ALCS, for only the fourth time in six years.

Kim called it. I wanted a $14M RBI-base hit. She wanted a $14M 2-run homer. I need to learn that she’s always right.

Holy crap what a game. This one had everything, offense, men left on base, pitching, runners left in scoring position, defense, and even some ridiculous dances. Bay got things started in the first destroying a pitch from Ervin Santana with two down, to give the Sox a quick 4-0 lead. Sadly nobody has ever accused Dice-K of being a shut-down pitcher, so he immediately gave the Angels hope with a 2-out rally cutting the lead to 4-1. Even when he got the run back in the top of the 4th, he gave it up again in the bottom of the 4th. And then the Angels really started to get baserunners. Three in the 5th (one scored), none in the 6th (although a fantastic catch at the wall by the game’s hero in right probably robbed Garrett Anderson of a HR), four in the 7th (one scored), and one in the 8th (one scored). The Sox had all of a sudden given up the lead and thanks to Dice-K lasting a whopping 5 innings, used all their good bullpen arms: Okajima for 1+, Masterson for 1+ and Paps was already in the game. Needless to say, I was a wreck. Blowing a 4-run lead is one thing, but to do it bit, by bit is just mean.

Exhibit A

But the good news is, so K-Rod was also in the game. Normally I wouldn’t call this good news, but with a WHIP of 1.288, there was at least some chance. Papi crushed a ball off the wall and the heel of the right-fielders glove on the first pitch of the 9th for a double (JD would’ve had it!). Coco pinch-ran for Papi, almost getting picked off at 2nd. In fact, Erik Aybar was so convinced that he had Coco picked off that he did a ridiculous imitation of a white guy dancing to House of Pain’s “Jump Around” by second base. Pure baseball comedy right there.

After Youks grounded out to the left side, JD came up and on a 2-2 pitch looked like he got jammed just a little on an 88mph changeup at the waist. I thought it was a routine fly out to the center-fielder a good 15 feet short of the warning track. But the ball started carrying, and carrying, and suddenly Torii Hunter was at the wall looking up as the ball bounced off the batter’s eye in right-center for a 2-run homer. I only wish I was there so I could hear the sound of 50,000 Los Los Angeles Angeles De Anaheim fans throw their rally monkeys on the ground.

In the bottom of the 9th, Youks did make up for not moving the runner over by making a great bare-handed pick-and-throw when Tori Hunter tried to bunt for a single and then followed that up by leaping over the camera well to catch a foul pop-up on a 3-2 pitch. (One SoSH poster put it perfectly, “Go Go Gadget Jew.”) Paps is a proud man though, and rather than let Youks help him out again, he struck out Howie Kendrick for the final out.

Exhibit B

If you need any indication of what this game meant, take a look at the two above pictures. In exhibit A, is the Angel dugout after tying the game in the 8th. Exhibit B is the same dugout after JD’s homer. Where’s your rally monkey now?

Josh Beckett who? Just a year ago I worried about Jon Lester starting game 4 of the World Series when the Sox had a 3-0 lead in the series. What a difference a year makes. Now, Lester, the game one starter for the Sox, put up another ho-hum 7 inning, 0 ER start. He did allow one run after a 2-out error by Stanford Boy (how smart are you now?), but settled down to retire 13 of his next 15 batters. You know, a standard performance from the Red Sox Ace.

Jason Bay put the Sox on the board with a big 2-out, 2-run homer in the 6th that I’m expecting to fall outside my front door 400 miles north of Anaheim, right about the same time that TBS was showing a “Red Sox: 0-10 with Runners on Base, 0-5 with RISP” graphic. Take that Chip Carey! Although in full disclosure, I hated Chip Carey a whole lot more before I learned that Michael Kay was doing the Brewers-Phillies series.

I really couldn’t be happier for Jason Bay though. He clearly works hard, and it’s nice to see him make a big mark in his first playoff game. Maybe this is the start of a new clutch performer.

But if pitching and defense win championships, then baserunning gaffes certainly help. Ellsbury robbed Texeria of a bloop hit in center with a fantastic diving catch. And then with Vlad on first and one out, Hunter blooped a single in the bermuda triangle behind first. Like a dying rally monkey, Vlad tried to go first-to-third. Youkilis was having none of that, trapping the ball, popping up and throwing out Vladdy by 30 feet, setting up a tag play at third between a guy who can’t bend at the hip and one who can’t run. According to fangraphs, that single play dropped the Angels chances of winning by 17%. The only play more significant was Bay’s HR.

Following the game, what the hell was this question from Craig Sager to Jon Lester, “You’re a cancer patient that’s not only surviving but thriving, and how much this game means to you tonight. What’d this win mean here? Taking game one in LA.” Lester is a better man than I, because my response would have been “To be honest, starting the clinching game of the World Series last year and pitching a no-hitter this season meant more, but, this is nice too.”

Since the playoffs start in about, oh, an hour, I wanted to get my picks down on paper. For some perspective, I went one for seven in the 2006 playoffs and last season went two for seven. So, take these with a grain of salt:

• Angels over Good Sox in 4
• Devil Rays over Bad Sox in 3
• Cubbies over Dodgers in 3
• Phillies over Brewers in 5 (If CC could start game one and pitch games 1, 3 and 5, then I’d pick the Brewers)

Play ball!